Microsoft is facing the unthinkable in mobile?

"Horace Dediu, a former Nokia executive who now runs the independent consultancy Asymco, noted that in the US Android and iOS phones cumulatively outnumber Windows Phone devices – which there have a 4.5% share – by 12 to one: "To become the largest mobile platform in the US, as some analysts are predicting, Microsoft has a 12:1 disadvantage that looks to continue to grow. Those are some pretty tough odds."

Microsoft spends millions on training as HTC shows Windows Phones | Technology | guardian.co.uk

Microsoft is a firm that has been written off before.

Time and time again Microsoft has managed to weather its own mistakes, to put the time and reputation in products to save them.

The joke used to be that by the third try Microsoft would get it right. Recently the firm was almost humiliated by the utter failure of Vista. It took years to get up to Windows 7 meaning Microsoft had essentially one desktop OS for about 7 years.

Over the past 20 years Microsoft has been able to get away with this patchy release strategy. Windows 95 stunk but no one else had an affordable alternative and Windows could improve it until Windows 2000 established a solid product. SharePoint early versions were not very good but the lack of a major portal alternative most Enterprises could afford meant that Microsoft had time to develop the tool to the leading portal and collaboration product.

But perhaps the market is no longer so forgiving.

With the re-emergence of Apple and the development of Google there may be other firms that understand the users, firms with a better record of success.

And just maybe people are not willing to wait three releases for something that works.